Romero drops out of congressional race; endorsed Cedillo

The title says it all.  Story here.

Kind of a shame to see her backing Cedillo rather than Chu.

Romero endorses Cedillo

Cedillo's pro illegal immigration stance and especially his stance on driver's license FOR illegals, IMHO, would make him a more polarizing figure and I cannot imagine a class act like Diane Feinstein wanting him on the hill.  I definitely could see Feinstein, Boxer and Napalitano working better with Chu, IMHO.   


Chu and Cedillo were the only other contenders.  I don't think the Calderon's were considered that strong compared to the three top people.  With Romero out, Cedillo gets a huge boost on the racial vote.  The important vote can become the Latino crossover vote in the SGV.  Chu probably has stronger name recognition and presence out here than Cedillo, at least among likely voters.  (Is this going to a special election, or will it end up on the next election? Can Republicans vote for the candidates?)  The white vote toward the central SGV is a toss-up, but I think they don't know either candidate well.

Also, I think, in terms of votes, Cedillo and Chu are on the same page, including the drivers license issue.  Both have been strongly pro-anything-immigration, pro-labor, somewhat pro-small-business.  On the ground, though, Chu comes off as more moderate and crossover and Cedillo as more ethnic.  I think Chu has a strong record on Latino voter issues too.  If polling shows Chu is strong on the crossovers, a lot of money could show up for her race.

On the flipside - Latinos are 80% of the vote.  That's huge.

Here's a map of the district.

And here's a map of the 49th Assembly, which I think is where Chu was before the BOE.

Even if Chu isn't able to overcome racial demographics, it would be good if she campaigns, so she can raise her profile more.

More on Cedillo/Chu

How do you figure that Latinos are 80% of the voters? Solis' home page says the district is 63% Latino.  Even if that were 2000 Census data, I doubt Latinos are more than half of the registered voters in the district, and definitely less than half (perhaps quite a bit less than half) of a special election electorate (Yes, it will be a special election, probably in April).  Plus, Judy's already lined up a number of Latino endorsements, so I don't think there's gong be strict racial voting in this election.

By the way, here's Cedillo's district.  Virtually no overlap with the 32nd Congressional District, but virtually all of the 49th Assembly District is in the 32nd CD.


That's the fraction I've read

That's the fraction I've read on a few blogs, that Latinos have the overwhelming majority of voters. I'm not sure how that stat plays in elections, though. Asians will turn out big for Chu.

It looks like the only portion of Cedillo's district that overlaps the 32nd is between Indiana (the City/County border) and Downey, south of the 60 freeway. That's just west of the cemetery.

BTW that map is interesting. The 22nd covers both Boyle Heights and San Marino, as well as Koreatown and P-Town. It looks like Asian areas are being split up and put into Latino districts. Gerrymandered.

Also, if you look closely, Cesar Chavez is re-named "Brooklyn", in East LA, and is re-named to Macy by Chinatown.