Local Unemployment is around 10%

A few years back, I posted about the local unemployment rate. It was pretty low back in 2007.

Today, according to the EDD website, the rate is around 10%. Preliminary numbers say 11%, and it's it has generally increased from January 2009, when it was in the 9.5% range.

So, there's a lot of talk about recovery, but unemployment here is still increasing. Though unemployment is a lagging indicator, it's not the only stat out there that doesn't quite jibe with a "recovery".

For one, the savings rate is still very high. In the past, it's hovered around 2%, but today, it's surged into the 4% to 5% range, and still trends upward. (See the BEA chart on savings.)

So people aren't spending money. Where is this growth coming from?

Some of it must be the stimulus package, but how much of it has been spent? A lot of websites have asked this question, and the general answer is "not much". This website says 6% in May. Maybe it's 10% by now. Even so, the quantity of the stimulus isn't that great.

So, where's the recovery?

I get the sense that there isn't going to be a "bounce" back from this recession. Instead, we'll see several years of fluctuations, hopefully mild ones. The government is going to spend a lot to prevent demand from sinking even more.

We still have two more years of pay-option-ARMs to see blow up, and this is going to happen in the middle class neighborhoods. The banks seem to have slowed down on the foreclosures -- the owners still need to be foreclosed on, but the banks are delaying in carrying out their duties, to prevent more houses from coming onto the market and lowering prices further. So a lot of people are living payment-free while they wait a year for the bank to kick them out.

It's pretty sleazy, but, these are the banks.

Since the larger economy has firmed up, the government should take over some the banks and force them to foreclose properties on time. Just do it quickly and get it over with. It'll hammer the economy, but, it'll correct the market faster. Who cares if a few big banks have to be destroyed to do it? Let the bums rot.

We're paying for this recovery, so we should get some benefits from it, too. One of those benefits should be a more stable fiscal sector.

California's unemployment

California's unemployment rate has been over 10% for a while, hasn't it? And I gotta believe it's been over 10% in L.A. County for a while, too. I wonder why the EDD numbers are so different from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? Maybe this is a season adjustment thing?

Statewide unemployment now at 12.2%

This, according to today's SGV Tribune. In L.A. County, they say it's 12.6%.

That's horrible. Here's a

That's horrible. Here's a link to the EDD page with LA County's stats:

click here